Top 10 Most Effective Football Betting Strategies

The Efficiency of Football Betting Strategies

If there were a 100% invincible betting strategy, tipsters would all be millionaires and bookmakers would go bankrupt. In the actual world, strategies only help bettors to place smarter bets, maintain their bankroll in control, and achieve stable profit-making. Success also depends on effective analysis, match selection, experience, etc. But strategy is the foundation on which everything else can be built — and especially in the case of live football betting, where decisions must be made quickly and under duress.

So what are the best sports betting strategies for success? Well, let's look at the top 10 most popular betting strategies among bettors.

1. Double Chance Betting Strategy

"Double chance" is a popular betting option that allows a bettor to win two of the three possible outcomes in a game. Bookmakers offer three double chance options:

1X – Home team win or draw
12 – Home or away win (not including draw)
X2 – Away team win or draw

The bet is a winner if either of the outcomes you picked happens. As an illustration, a 1X bet will be a winner if either the home team or the match drawing happens.

When to apply double chance bets:

You anticipate that your favorite will win but are not 100% certain. If the win odds are over 1.95, the double chance will have 1.30–1.50 odds.
The favorite is in a predicament (e.g., many injuries or overloaded match fixture). Bet double chance on the underdog — odds may be over 2.50–3.00.
Both teams need a win and neither wants a draw. Utilize the "12" market to exclude the draw.

2. First Half Total Goals Strategy

This is a strategy that works well in games that do not expect the teams to play in defense. A nice example is the second leg of a cup tie where one team will be desperate to score.

When the odds of over 1 goal in the first half are 1.50+, then it's a bet worth placing. Desperate for more risk? Bet over 1.5, which usually has 2.00+ odds.

Live tip: Bet in-play after the first 5–10 minutes to gauge the game’s tempo. Odds will rise, and you’ll better assess the attacking potential. Only bet if it’s still 0:0.

3. Martingale (Chasing Losses) Strategy

This popular method is used across many sports. The idea is to increase the bet amount after each loss, so a single win recovers all losses.

The classic Martingale system is to double your bet after every loss: $2, $4, $8, and so on. Odds must be at least 2.00 in order to work.

You can adapt the system. That is, if the next odds will be 3.40 (from your analysis), no need to double the bet. Use this formula to calculate your next bet:

S = (TW + TL) / (O - 1)
Where:
S = stake
TW = target win from original bet
TL = total losses so far
O = odds of the next bet

4. Late Goal Betting System

You can bet here that a goal will be scored after the 75th minute. When live betting, you can wait until the 80th minute for odds to be 2.00+.

Ideal game conditions:

Many chances for both teams
No overriding team
Strikers introduced quickly into the game
The match over has not lived up to expectations

Certain sides are known to score late, like the legendary "Fergie Time" at Manchester United.

5. Draw Betting Strategy

Simple: choose matches between evenly matched teams. Draws typically have odds between 3.00–3.50, so level betting (same bet amount each time) can be profitable.

When to bet on a draw:

The tournament is marred by draws
A draw works in the favor of both teams
Last 3–5 head-to-head matches were draws
One or both teams have lots of recent draws

6. Oscar's Grind Strategy

Oscar Grind was a famous American gambler (not sports, but casinos). His system is based on probability theory.

You set a profit goal (e.g. 5% of your bankroll). Suppose you have $100 and want to win $5 per cycle.

Bets are constant after losing
The next bet increases after winning
Stick to 2.00+ odds for events

Example

Bet $5 at 2.00 odds
Win = $5 profit → cycle complete
Lose? Bet $5 again until win
After a win, bet $10. A win will now cover all losses and reach your goal.

Most suited for even-chance bets, such as even/odd total goals.

7. D'Alembert and Flat Betting in Football

Flat betting is easy. You wager a flat amount every time regardless of odds or bankroll — say, $3 per bet. Pros tally its effectiveness after 100–200 bets.

D'Alembert's system is based on the law of equilibrium by French mathematician Jean le Rond d'Alembert. Start with a beginning bet and change it:

Bet up after losing
Bet down after winning

Example:

Start with $10 and a step size of $5
Lose = next bet is $15
Win = back to $10

8. Over 2.5 Goals Strategy

One of the favourite football bets is over 2.5 goals. You will want to bet when:

Both sides have an attacking style of play
Key strikers are fit and playing
Both sides are hungry — they don't want a draw
70%+ of their recent games ended in 3+ goals
They consistently play high-scoring matches

9. Corner Betting Strategy

While unpopular, corner kick betting can be profitable. Back the favorite with a -2 or -3 corner handicap if:

They are playing at home
They employ wing play and crosses
They have a tall striker to manage aerial battles
Their opponents are ultra-defensive ("parking the bus")

10. Surebets (Arbitrage Betting)

Arbitrage (or surebet) is the one method that guarantees profit regardless of the outcome. But finding them is very difficult.

Example:
Bookmaker A offers Over 2.5 goals 2.05
Bookmaker B offers Under 2.5 goals 2.10
Wager the same amounts on both — you'll win either way.

You won't be offered such opportunities in top leagues. Look for them in lower divisions (Qatar, Finland, South Africa) or exotic sports (floorball, darts, cricket).